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Not quite as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs, but bad enough to give the Denver Broncos (2-3) some hope if they can find a way to, well, get out of their own way.The mood around Broncos Country is one of despair and acceptance of losing. Losing is something we have all come to except in the Vance Joseph era and collectively we don’t think it will be much different this week with the Mile Brendan Langley Jersey High Report staff predicting a 37-21 home loss.Here is how we expect things to play out individually.Broncos 31, Rams 28Never give up, never surrender! That is my motto this week as I predict yet another Broncos win - which is something I have done every week this year. I feel like this is Joseph’s last chance to change the narrative of this season and get things back on track in a big way. Do I think it’s likely? Not really, but I have to go into each game hoping for the best - especially this early into a season. - Tim LynchRams 44, Broncos 2431-3 at halftime. Then Case Keenum is benched and Chad Kelly comes in to usher in a new era as our franchise quarterback.What will the final score be? Not a clue as I’m not sure if the Rams will call off the dogs and prevent defense their way home, or if Chad Kelly lights it up and keeps it within 3 scores. But I know at some point, it will be a 28+ point game. - Pete BaronRams 32, Broncos 17The Rams are going to want to make a statement against the Broncos on Sunday. Wade Phillips will have his defense fired up, and things could get ugly quick. As I mentioned on The MHR Radio Podcast, after three quarters the Rams will probably be up by enough to call off the dogs. The game will be over at 32-0 heading into the fourth, but Keenum will snag a few garbage time points in the fourth against the backups. 32-17 Rams. - Adam MalnatiRams 38, Broncos 21I think Lindsay and Royce go HAM against a weak Rams run D but the Broncos turn into the same pass happy outfit they’ve been so far as Jared Goff torches the secondary. Denver scores 21 but gives up more than 5 touchdowns. - Joe RowlesRams 51, Broncos 23I think its 51-23, Rams.That was the score of the Eagles game last year and this season is shaping up to look pretty close to last year’s season.I think Denver comes out with some energy, but succumbs to turnovers and their losing ways in the second half. - Jeff EssaryRams 34 https://www.broncosfanstore.com/Justin-Simmons-Jersey , Broncos 9Most seem to agree the weather is the only chance the Broncos have on Sunday. The Rams want to prove they have what it takes to win on the road in the cold and snow. Todd Gurley is going to absolutely shred the Broncos defense — think Bo Jackson on Tecmo Bowl — and the Rams D will own the line of scrimmage, thus taking away the only thing Denver does well on offense. At least Bill Musgrave won’t be surprised by the calls this week. Of course, Wade Phillips and the Rams will benefit from the Broncos not playing one of their better run-blocking offensive lineman. - Ian St. ClairGive us your score predictions in the comments section below. If you dare... Despite the Broncos record, and the optics at a glance, the Denver offense has shown improvement this year. There is an explosive component to this offense that hasn’t been there in years past.Denver has also finally found a consistent running game. After three years of hearing “we want to establish the run” or “we want to lean on the running game” from the various coaching staffs, the fans are actually seeing the product on the field.The Broncos rank 3rd in the league in total rushing yards, and 1st in the league in yards per attempt.However, it’s the passing game that while it produces some explosive plays, just cannot get things done when it counts.“3rd down and red zone”I probably bring up this quote at least once a month during the NFL season, because I love it so much. David Shaw, head coach at Stanford is one of my favorite coaches and he described quarterback play in the NFL as 3rd down and red zone. That’s what sets the greats apart from the “stat stuffers” or “fantasy quarterbacks”. Sure it’s fun to rack up yards between the 20s on 1st and 2nd down, but where quarterbacks make their money is in those critical spots for their team.3rd DownSo how has Denver’s passing offense fared on 3rd downs? First of all, it’s critical to understand the importance of a passing offense in this spot and why the quarterback must be effective on 3rd downs. If you have a strong running game like Denver has, is there as big a need for the quarterback and passing offense to shoulder the load on 3rd down?In short, yes. In today’s NFL, 3rd down is essentially the quarterback’s down. Out of the 3,129 3rd down plays across the league so far this year, only 21% have been runs. That is because the league average for yards to gain on 3rd down is 7.1 yards (Denver is right at league average). Of the times teams have run the ball on 3rd downs Domata Peko Color Rush Jersey , 50% of those runs have come when the offense had less than six yards to gain. So when offenses have less than six yards to gain, it’s about a 50/50 split whether they run or pass on 3rd downs. Thus, offenses are passing the ball 80% of the time on 3rd downs. So, if you want to convert and be efficient on offense, you’re quarterback has to at least show up on 3rd down.Unfortunately, this is precisely where Denver has failed in the passing game.Case Keenum currently ranks 31st in the league at converting on 3rd downs at a paltry 22.5%. Additionally, Denver ranks 7th in the league on sacks given up on 3rd down with 12. In a future post, I’ll be breaking down each of those sacks to look at who’s to blame - the offensive line, or the quarterback, so more to come on this.At first glance, when looking at raw stats like completion % or QB rating, Keenum’s performance doesn’t necessarily dip that much when it gets to 3rd down. Which is why it is important to look at more telling metrics like success rate and yards per attempt that take into account the context of the situation. For instance, when passing on 3rd down, Denver has averaged around 8 yards to gain for a first down. Compare that to Case Keenum’s average yards per attempt on 3rd downs, at 5.6, and it becomes clearer that while he may be completing passes, they are falling short of the needed yardage. In fact, Keenum’s Y/A on 3rd down drops nearly three yards per attempt from his first down Y/A. This leads to Denver being one of the worst teams in the league at not only converting on 3rd down Demarcus Walker Jersey , but on gap between yards needed versus yards actually gained.I broke this down in a handy chart.3rd Down DifferentialTmGamesPlaysYardsToGoYds GainedDifferentialRank1st%TmGamesPlaysYardsToGoYds GainedDifferentialRank1st%(here is a more mobile friendly chart)As you can see, Denver is 28th in the league at closing the gap between the needed yards on 3rd down, and actual yards gained. On average, Denver’s passing game is four yards short of their needed yardage on 3rd downs, with the league average being around two yards.This is why regardless of how effective your running game is, the quarterback and passing game is critical to the success of the offense as a whole - and Denver hasn’t just been not good in this area, they have been downright bad.Red ZoneThe second critical area for an offense is finishing when in scoring range. This is where things begin to really look ugly for Case Keenum.Keenum’s QB rating drops nearly 40 points when inside the red zone, and his completion percentage drops over 20%.This is even more of a startling drop off considering Case Keenum was a top five quarterback in the red zone last year. I mentioned this a little bit last week while on Orange and Blue 760. Case Keenum threw 15 touchdowns last year in the red zone with zero interceptions, and six of those went to Kyle Rudolph. Another deep dive I will be doing in the future is a look at Keenum this year in the red zone, so stay tuned, but not having a go-to guy down in the red zone has clearly been an issue for Keenum and Denver’s offense.When looking at the numbers like this, it is easy to see why Denver has struggled so much this year, and why fans are not happy with the quarterback play. This is just the start of a series of posts on this topic, but it begins to paint a picture of just how bad the passing offense has been in key situations. You just can’t win in the NFL with this kind of play. If the Denver Broncos want to improve their fortunes this year or next, this has to be where they start.