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 should be for Josh Allen in his second year." />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteBuffalo Rumblingsa Buffalo Bills communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsSectionsBillsOddsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections NewsNotesOpinionAnalysisDiscussionPodcastNFL DraftSalary CapFiled under:AnalysisNotesWhat kind of leap should we expect from Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen?New Vosean Joseph NFL Draft ,93commentsWe take a crack at predicting what the expectation should be for Josh Allen in his second year.EDTShareTweetShareShareWhat kind of leap should we expect from Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen?The Buffalo Bills have done a whole heck of a lot to reshape their roster this offseason with the hope it will pay big dividends. Enough offensive linemen for several teams, a new-look receiver room, and a potential monster to man the middle of the defense all have us dreaming big. Deep down, though, everyone knows that the Bills’ fortunes hinge on Josh Allen. Flashes of potential and some big-time throws are nice, but the overall statistical output was not great by any means. Buffalo will need him to make a leap, so we’ll try to make a reasonable projection of what we can expect.MethodologyThis project looks to predict growth in five key areas: Yards/Game, Yards/Attempt, Completion Percentage, Interception Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. These five were selected as a result of who we looked to compare Josh Allen to. To make the projection, data was gathered for quarterbacks who had 50 or more regular-season passing attempts in their first two seasons. This was done league wide over a span of ten years, with quarterbacks drafted from 2008 to 2017. Because many of these quarterbacks did not start at the beginning of their first year (like Josh Allen) or were spot players, a greater emphasis was placed on rate-based stats. Volume-based data would be drastically different between John Skelton and Andrew Luck, for example. For the five measures, the difference between year one and two was calculated for every quarterback (37 in total). An average change was calculated as well as the standard deviation for each to come up with a range of “normal change” for each metric. With all that said, it’s time for some charts. Yards/GameThis format will be used for each of the metrics. Josh Allen’s first year is followed by the three “likely” outcomes. The “projection ave” is the perfect mean-average-change for the quarterback data set added to Josh Allen’s first year. The “projection min” and “max” are the limits of the normal range (one standard deviation from the mean). For fun I’ve also added the best-case scenario. Because of the varying circumstances in how each quarterback found their way to the field, this is an incredibly volatile data set. Allen’s year one was pretty dismal as the 32nd-ranked quarterback in this measure. If he has a pretty ordinary increase, Allen will hit 191 yards per game or so, which would be a disappointment for sure. A regression isn’t out of the question, either. For the optimists, it wouldn’t be a major shocker for him to reach the 230 yards-per-game range. This would have been good for 25th in the league last year, but quarterbacks have been successful with this output. For our best case scenario, John Skelton was able to increase his completion percentage and yards per attempt significantly. These efficiency tweaks seemed to have paid off by increasing his per-game yardage by nearly 110 yards per game. This increase for Allen would put him just shy of 300 yards per game, which would be near the top of the league. The closest realistic parallel is Blake Bortles, who increased his yardage per game by nearly 70 yards. Yards/AttemptYards per attempt should help factor out some of the wackiness that occurred above thanks to drastically different playing times. Allen’s debut of 6.5 yards per attempt was tied for 31st in the league. Average change in the ten-year span was a very slight uptick. However, we again see high variability. Regression could get ugly quick, but progression within even the normal range would have Josh Allen reach 7.8 yards per attempt, which would most likely be flirting with the top ten. The best case scenario is that changes in the team lead to a Jared Goff-like change of 2.7 yards per attempt. Goff improved from a hideous 5.3 yards per attempt to a more than healthy 8.0 Y/A. While that same change would put Allen at 9.2, that’s not out of the question. Goff was actually tied with Nick Foles for the largest increase in this stat during the ten-year span. Foles’s first year of 6.4 led to 9.1 in his second year. If Allen were to reach that high he’d almost certainly be top three. Completion PercentageNo statistic is used more frequently to disparage Josh Allen than completion percentage. His 52.8% was dead last in the league. Regression would make him dead last-ier. Perfectly average change would lead him to 54.2%, which probably would keep him dead last. A top-end “normal” improvement leads to 58.7%. While not dead last, it would have been close in 2018. The best case scenario comes courtesy of Christian Ponder—who started at 54% and improved in his second year by 7.8%. There’s room to hope here, too, as five of the quarterbacks in the decade of data had improvement of 7% or higher. Another four quarterbacks improved by 6% or more. Unfortunately, though Vosean Joseph NFL Jersey , to get to league average Allen would need to jump about 13%, which is nearly twice what any quarterback was capable of doing between year one and year two. Touchdown PercentageNo one will care about completion percentage or yardage if the team is piling on points. One way Josh Allen can help that is to increase his touchdown percentage. This measure is simply the percent of passes a quarterback throws that go for a touchdown. In his first year, Allen threw a touchdown 3.1% of the time or about one every 32 passes. This had him tied for 30th. Average improvement would put him at 4.0%, which should be striking distance from league average. A jump to 6.2% would still classify as “normal” but place Allen in the top ten in all likelihood. Nick Foles provides the best-case scenario. His jump of 6.2% is in large part thanks to a dreadful year one at 2.3%. Carson Wentz also provides hope of major improvement going from 2.6% to 7.5%. Interception PercentageThis one is last because it’s the only stat where less is more. Josh Allen was second worst in the league in 2018 with his 3.8% rate. And note that these are all for qualifying quarterbacks. A certain someone had over twice the interception rate as Josh Allen. His name rhymes with “Skate Skeeterman” if you’re curious. Regression would clearly be bad. On average, quarterbacks improved nearly half a percent. If Allen were to do that he’d still fare pretty poorly. We have another stat with a wide range of “normal change” though. There’s no reason to suggest Allen couldn’t improve all the way to 1.7% for interceptions. That should be right on the edge of top ten. For our “best case” scenario, two quarterbacks improved by over 4%, which would be impossible for Allen to improve by. So theoretically, the best case is that he throws zero interceptions—but that’s not incredibly likely. SummaryRight off the bat, here’s the good news: In all five metrics, at least 21 quarterbacks out of the sample of 37 improved in year two. For yards per game, 24 quarterbacks improved and for touchdown percentage 26 did. It’s more likely than not Josh Allen won’t regress. So while the “projected min” columns were included to show a normal range of change, it’s not realistic to expect that out of Allen. If Allen were to improve the average amount he’d have a pretty disappointing season, likely eliciting some cries to replace him in year three. Fans will be looking for a larger-than-average leap from Allen, with most measures toward the “projection-max” or “best-case” values. How likely is it that Allen will reach those heights? Well the “best-case” names are included for a reason. Many of the quarterbacks with the largest leaps were all ones who had a team prepared to invest in them. Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, and yes Blake Bortles all saw big gains. Each of these quarterbacks had a team willing to bet on their guy, and several saw major team changes cater to the quarterback. If nothing else, it’s very clear that the Buffalo Bills have gone out of their way to prop up Josh Allen this season. If there’s something to this Josh Allen fella, it’s perfectly reasonable to think he’ll make a sizablejump in 2019. The Buffalo Bills practically stole Jerry Hughes from the Indianapolis Colts six years ago in a lopsided trade for the ages. The former first-round pick had underperformed in Indy as a 3-4 linebacker and was swapped for middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard. Since then, he’s brought a ferocious pass rush and great all-around play to Buffalo, but his career is at a crossroads.Hughes is going to be 31 before the season starts and he’s entering the final year of a five-year, $45 million deal which will make him the second-highest cap hit on the roster in 2019. Which begs the question, should the Bills look to move on from Hughes, keep him for the final year of his contract, or sign him to an extension?We dove into all aspects of the decision and now you get to vote.All-22 Analysis(Read the entire article with GIFs by Jeff Kantrowski)There’s not much suspense here so I’ll cut to the chase. The Bills would be incredibly foolish to let Hughes find a new city. It’s true that his sack totals haven’t placed him in the best territory (seven in 2018). As a result, there’s a steady murmur of Hughes being washed up. Don’t buy into that narrative. Hughes is coming off one of his best seasons, even from a statistics standpoint.I think we all know the conclusion I came to about Jerry Hughes. Statistically, the only season he’s ever been more productive in was 2014. Defensive end impact players are a premium position and the Bills have a good one on the right side. Hughes is still a dynamic playmaker who makes his presence known. With the occasional hothead moment from Hughes being his biggest drawback, there’s no reason to let him walk.Salary Cap Implications(Read the entire article by Dylan Zadonowicz)If the Bills do surprisingly release Hughes, they would save quite a bit of money for the 2019 season. The team would have to turn to free agency and the NFL Draft to try and replace his production.Salary cap ramifications of cutting Hughes, numbers via Spotrac:2019 cap hit: $10.4 millionSalary due: $6.35 millionRoster bonus: $1 millionWorkout bonus: $150,000Annual sack incentives: $1 millionDead money if cut: $2.9 millionCap savings if cut: $7.5 million if released before roster bonusIn-house Replacement Options(Read the entire article by John Boccacino)The most logical in-house replacement is another former first-round pick: Shaq Lawson. Lawson struggled to make an impact in Rex Ryan’s 3-4 scheme during his rookie season, and didn’t get much better in 2017—the first season with Sean McDermott as head coach and Frazier as defensive coordinator. But in 2018, Lawson turned a corner and showed why Buffalo selected him with the 19th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft out of Clemson.After appearing in 14 games (six starts) and finishing with four sacks Vosean Joseph Jersey Draft , 12 QB hits, 30 total tackles (five for a loss), five passes defended, and two forced fumbles, Pro Football Focus graded Lawson as the league’s 20th-best edge rusher. The 24-year-old Lawson carries a $3,270,586 million cap hit that is fully-guaranteed in 2019, but one season removed from an even timeshare with veteran defensive end Trent Murphy on the left side of the defensive line, Lawson should be in line for even more action this year. Lawson displayed the same athleticism that made him a standout at Clemson, leading the defensive line in balls batted down at the line of scrimmage, and when he wasn’t sacking the quarterback he was causing chaos in the opposing backfield.When it comes to Lawson’s role with the Bills, the biggest issue isn’t whether he will have a place on Frazier’s defense in 2019—he has proven himself to be a valuable contributor—it’s what the Bills will do about the fifth-year option on Lawson’s rookie contract.With young depth, the Bills could take their chances moving on from Hughes with just the players on their roster now if they wanted.Free-Agent Replacement Options(Read the entire article by Sean Murphy)If Buffalo does decide to go the free-agent route, it’s a strong free-agent class to do so. The only problem, of course, is money. If Buffalo wants to land a big-name pass rusher, they will have to shell out big-time dollars at the expense, literally and figuratively, of other positions with more pressing needs.DeMarcus LawrenceThe golden goose of this year’s free agent class is the young, dominant pass rusher. Coming off his second straight season of at least ten sacks, Lawrence turns 27 in April, and he should command a contract of at least $100 million. Over the last two seasons, he has 25 sacks, 29 tackles for loss, and 49 quarterback hits. Ezekiel AnsahThe veteran former first-round pick of the Detroit Lions is coming off an injury-plagued down year—one where he was only able to play in seven games total. However, he still managed four sacks, three tackles for loss, and seven quarterback hits in those seven games. For comparison’s sake, Hughes suited up in all of Buffalo’s games this year, and he totaled seven sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and 18 quarterback hits.Frank ClarkThere may be some East Coast Bias here, but Clark is far more under-the-radar than the previous names on the list. Playing for a stellar Seattle Seahawks defense, Clark has amassed 35 sacks, 35 tackles for loss Infant Vosean Joseph Jersey , and 72 quarterback hits over his four-year career. Last year, he totaled 13 sacks, 27 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles, and one interception. Trey FlowersThe Bills could kill two birds with one stone with this signing, simultaneously strengthening their team and weakening a divisional opponent, the New England Patriots, in the process. Flowers is an excellent all-around player who had seven-and-a-half sacks, nine tackles for loss, and 20 quarterback hits last season. In his career, he has 21 sacks, 25 tackles for loss, and 59 quarterback hits. Julius PeppersInsert obligatory mention of connections to Carolina Panthers via head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane here. The 39-year-old future Hall of Fame player still has some value as a situational pass rusher.He was with the Chicago Bears when McDermott was in Carolina, so their paths did not cross. It’s an unlikely signing.NFL Draft Replacement Options(Read the entire article with mini scouting reports by Andrew Griffin)If the Bills do move on from the long-time starter at defensive end, the team might best be served procuring some young, hungry talent in the draft. Currently, the 2019 Draft is loaded with talented pass rushers and defensive ends. Knowing the value teams place at the position, as many as five of the players listed below could end up as first-round picks.Tier INick Bosa (Ohio State) Josh Allen (Kentucky)Clelin Ferrell (Clemson)Nick Bosa is more athletic that his brother Joey, something he’ll prove at the combine in March. Importantly, he’s just as polished as Joey was when he came out for the draft. Allen appears to be athletic enough to handle multiple defensive roles, but he’s proven so effective as a pass rusher that coaches would be crazy to try to deploy him anywhere else. Although he isn’t as much of a natural bender as the names listed before him, Ferrell is big enough and good enough with his hands to the point where that lack of flexibility doesn’t matter too much.Tier IIJachai Polite (Florida)Brian Burns (Florida State)Montez Sweat (Mississippi State) Oshane Ximines (Old Dominion)Jaylon Ferguson (Louisiana Tech)Scouting reports available in the full article here.Tier IIICharles Omenihu (Texas)Joe Jackson (Miami-Florida)Zach Allen (Boston College)Ben Banogu (TCU)Scouting reports available in the full article here.Contract Extension Projection(Read the entire article by Matt Warren)Hughes has a current contract for $9 million per season over five years, and while it’s fair to expect a raise from that contract, that’s not the way the wind blew last year. Last offseason, Buffalo signed Trent Murphy to a $7.5 million per-year deal, and defensive ends on the market made less than that unless they were franchise-tagged. That would likely drive down the price for Hughes, but there’s a surge brewing.If Hughes and his agent are smart, they will wait until after all the huge deals get done at the start of free agency. With several big-name pass rushers expected to hit the market in March, per-year averages could soar.Conversely, the Bills should try to lock up Hughes while they still can get him for a discount before five guys sign huge deals this off-season. They have the cap space and they should sign one of their best defensive players for another few years.The time is right for both sides. Hughes can sign a lucrative deal before he turns 31 and hits free agency at nearly 32 before the 2020 season. The Bills get great production at a fair price for a few years.Here’s my projection:Three years, $33 million extensionFour years, $40.5 million total (including existing 2019)Fully guaranteed: $15.35 millionHughes and his camp can claim he received $11 million per year in new money, while the Bills can lock in Hughes at an average of $10 million per season. Both sides would probably agree to a sack-based incentive that could give him another $1 million each year as they did on his last contract.Read the full projection with comparable contracts and a yearly breakdown in the original article.Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY SportsWhat do you think the Bills should do with Hughes this offseason?